A decade following the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the nation and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate drifted into Brexit and the identical might transpire with a referendum on a unified Ireland, sparking disturbances for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from either side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a possibly fraught and transformative public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole said. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
New Title Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The pair have studied the political, economic and cultural arguments for any structural alteration in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the matter with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles everybody, or must worry all involved, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a majority would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a group called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain when or if there could be a national vote.
Lack of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has occurred in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with the essentials. As an example, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the current situation. Both writes two articles that seek impartiality in detailing the argument for a unified Ireland and the argument against, assembling financial and societal figures, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Arguments cover flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there has not yet occurred a dialogue," commented the writer. "Discussion implies an acknowledgement of the idea that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens say they support unity but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government must work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is beyond just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his era is possible and that it may take place suddenly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who states: 'We should proceed and resolve it.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have credible, justified arguments, he stated. "One side will succeed on this issue and the other side will eventually not succeed but each side has possesses valuable insights to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to join the discussion, said the analyst. "This involves your state. It is a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."
